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With re-election plan in mind, Macri's second phase starts: reform agenda and less sustention in "danger K"

With re-election plan in mind, Macri's second phase starts: reform agenda and less sustention in "danger K"
24/10/2017 - 01:23hs
With re-election plan in mind, Macri's second phase starts: reform agenda and less sustention in "danger K"

The mid-term legislative election has left the feeling of having stated a before and an after it. Cambiemos coalition has won more than twenty-one legislative stalls in deputies and eight in senators. The government has cleared the “lack of gobernability” ghosts that press on every non-peronist party that reaches the government. Now, with the feeling that the serious phase is starting and with president Macri positioned for the 2019´s re-election, it has been stated that a new political momento has started. 

Cristina Kirchner, leader of the second political force in this ellection, has also admitted this statement by having said that “this is not an ending, but here and now is where everything is going to start”. 

Although, the results of this election cannot have two interpretations, as it happened with the primary elections. It is perfectly clear that president Macri has been electorally supported throughout the country.  As if it were not enough, the government has improved congressmen representation and has been finally able to defeat Cristina Kirchner in Buenos Aires province –which has historically been a peronist bastion-.

Feeling of relief“A country decided to do everything right”: that´s the definition that president Macri gave about the suppport that Cambiemos coalition obtained in the poll. More than 40% of the country voted for this coalition, a number that has improved since the primary ellection in August 13th.

Festivities in Cambiemos bunker, situated in Costa Salguero, just like the previous elections, showed relief, after having lived in veil about Santiago Maldonado´s case during the past few days. Firstly, the impact of the previous days´ facts proved to be almost nule.  

The government was also relieved because of the measured reaction that Cristina Kirchner had, as it had been said that she may contest the results. Against expected, she recognised her defeat  in a calmed speech. 

A new political mapAlthough the government will improve its position, the background will not change. That is to say, that the government will continue without majority and it will depend on the provinces´peronism. Ergo, it will have to continue to be a deal maker, even more if they want to reform certain laws. 

Conversely, partidary policy will see some changes, because peronism now enters in a complex moment, where it is to be seen if Cristina Kirchner is able to keep her leadership. Athough she wants to picture the election results as her own victory, everybody knows that this is not the interpretation that peronism and public opinión will take.  

She has celebrated that Unidad Ciudadana has improved its electoral performance compared with the primary election. However, given that more people voted on Sunday, this was expected to happen. Notwithstanding, kirchnerism was not expected to loose in the “conurbano” sections.  

The truth is that she has lost the election and now she will receive complaints and demands on wether it was the best strategy to separate from Florencio Randazzo.  While Cristina tries to convince her militancy that the stumble is a reassembled circumstance and not a cycle end, the macrism faces its own paradox: it will begin to lose the main "fuel" of its growth.

In other words, if someone has taken all the juice to the "crack", that is just Macri. It has been shown that Cambiemos's strong electoral appeal and political capital is his ability to prevent an eventual return of Kirchnerism to power.

The macrism knows this, and few political spaces have so well exploited the logic of "them and us", which characterizes the moments of high polarization that appear in a society.

The Maldonado case itself confirmed something that was suspected: that in situations of social fracture and exasperated moods, this type of episode has the effect of reinforcing previous beliefs.

So, in view of the politicization of the disappearance of the young artisan, the macrism not only lost votes but even revalidated its defenses the Kirchner.

In this scenario dominated by "intense minorities", there is little room for rational debate and the "chicane" of social networks prevails. This, translated in terms of suffrages, means that no voters are lost but the extreme positions are reaffirmed.

But, like everything else, that too has a decreasing effect. At some point, that "no return more" that was heard on the night of the Macrista celebration will lose its force and then another slogan will be necessary.

There is the great paradox of Cambiemos, a political space that was born, grew and consolidated driven by a powerful force: the terror of Kirchnerism. That was what kept the cohesion in a heterogeneous alliance, in which live from old radicals (who ask for more institutionality) to the new liberal right (with values of business efficiency); from the middle class (who hated the "stock exchange") to listeners of Baby Etchecopar (who asked for "hard hand").

That was also what concealed the impatience and anger at the lack of results of the economy and the lack of "tarifazo" in the first months of Macrista management. It was what silenced the protests of those who asked for more speed in the changes and greater decision in the advance of the painful but inevitable adjustments.

The fear of Cristina was what prompted the middle class to take to the streets when, in April, she felt that the opposition wanted to install a destitute climate with the allusions to the helicopter delarruista in the Plaza de Mayo.

So the big challenge for Cambiemos now appears: as the "K-phantom" gets diluted (and CFK starts to worry more about its legal problems than 2014 nominations), Macri will have to enter a new phase.

Some define it as the "real" program of government. It is the stage at which the accelerator of reforms must be stepped on and in which it must test its persuasive capacity to convince that the new political agenda has virtues that deserve the support of the citizens.

It is also a stage of less patience, in which wanting to justify oneself with the "inheritance received" will lose its validity. More visible results will be required in terms of lowering inflation and raising investment.

Amidst the joy of the festivities, the main leaders of Cambiemos left signs in the sense that they capture the point of inflection. References to need for improvement in management and social indicators begin to occupy more spaces of discourse than allusions to the differences of style with Kirchnerism.